Guide
How to read NBA prop hit rates
A hit rate is how often a player went over a number in games he actually played. On OverCount you pick a player and a stat, type the line you're looking at, and see the share of games he finished strictly over it in his last 5, 10 and 20 games, this season and last season.
A real example: Luka Doncic, points over 39.5
39.5 is Luka Doncic's default line on his page (his last-10 points average, rounded to the nearest .5). As of Nov 10, 2026:
Read it like this: he scored more than 39.5 points in 6 of his last 10 games (60%). The 2025-26 number covers 64 games, so it is steadier but older; the last-5 number is recent but based on only five games. Open his page and type a different line to watch every number change.
What each window tells you
- L5 / L10 / L20: his last 5, 10 or 20 games played, counting back into last season when needed. Short windows react fast to a role change or a hot streak; they also swing a lot on small samples.
- Season: every game this season (and last season, separately). Bigger sample, slower to react.
- Home / away and head-to-head: useful context, but head-to-head samples are often only 2–4 games.
- 🔥 Red hot: over his default points line in at least 4 of his last 5 games.
Four things to check before you trust a number
- Sample size. 4/5 (80%) and 40/50 (80%) are not the same evidence. Look at the game count under every percentage.
- Minutes and role. A hit rate built when he played 36 minutes means less if he is now coming off the bench. The game log shows minutes for every game.
- The exact line. Over 24.5 and over 25.5 can be very different. Whole-number lines can push (exactly equal), and a push counts as not over here.
- The opponent. Check the opponent's defense rank overall and against his position, and the team's offense rank.
What a hit rate is not
A hit rate describes the past. It is not a probability, a prediction or a pick, and the default lines on OverCount are not sportsbook lines. Injuries, rest, trades and matchups all change what happens next.
For entertainment and informational purposes only. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Where to go next
Best hit rates tonight · Tonight's games · All players by team · About & methodology